Covid-19 360 Game Changers

Coronavirus Webinar Presentation

Larry Adam, CFA, CIMA®, CFP®
Chief Investment Officer

September 14, 2020

Webinar Replay: Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam discusses the latest in vaccines and therapeutics, potential virus hot spots and school reopening.

Click the link to view presentation: https://www.raymondjames.com/investment-strategy-client-call

The views expressed in this commentary are the current opinion of the Chief Investment Office, but not necessarily those of Raymond James & Associates, and are subject to change. Information contained in this report was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. No investment strategy can guarantee success. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or that any of the forecasts mentioned will occur. Economic and market conditions are subject to change. Investing involves risks including the possible loss of capital. Material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Dollar cost averaging cannot guarantee a profit or protect against a loss, and you should consider your financial ability to continue purchases through periods of low price levels.

Equities Pull Back From Early September Highs

Markets and Investing

September 21, 2020

The Dow Jones Industrial dipped almost 3% on Monday, and the S&P 500 slid more than 2% from the previous week, off about 7% from its recent highs earlier this month.

Investors have had a lot to process over the past few days. Domestic equity declines, on top of global ones, dovetailed with the loss of legendary Supreme Court Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, as well as a rise in COVID-19 cases across the nation. The Dow Jones Industrial dipped almost 3% on Monday, and the S&P 500 slid more than 2% from the previous week, off about 7% from its recent highs earlier this month. Large-cap tech names, which had experienced a run up in recent months, began to drag on the broader markets this week, while the rest of the stocks generally held their ground.

September has historically been a weak month for equities. Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam has repeatedly cautioned that this seasonal slump combined with expected election volatility and valuations at their highest level in almost two decades could make the equity markets vulnerable to the modest pullback we’re seeing now.

Progress on the pandemic has been a mixed bag of late, one step forward, two steps back. The daily average number of cases jumped 17% within a week, according to Healthcare Analyst Chris Meekins, although the seven-day average continues to hover around 5%. Labor Day gatherings, schools reopening and relaxed mitigation measures likely all contribute to the uptick, he believes.

The passing of Justice Ginsburg leaves an opening on the Supreme Court late in an already-contentious presidential election cycle – potentially ushering in a partisan political battle, as well as a shift in the electoral landscape, according to Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst.

The latest economic reports also reflect a more moderate recovery, following sharp-but-partial improvement over the summer, explains Chief Economist Scott Brown. The Federal Reserve continues to do its part to provide liquidity to the financial system, but another round of government assistance might be hindered by political division ahead of the election with a Supreme Court vacancy in the balance.

We continue to view unprecedented global stimulus and record low interest rates as supportive of equities over the intermediate term, adds Senior Portfolio Analyst Joey Madere, who sees short-term volatility as potential opportunity to selectively add to a portfolio.

Your financial advisor can help address any questions you may have about recent volatility and its effect on your financial plan.

Investing involves risk, and investors may incur a profit or a loss. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of Raymond James and are subject to change. There is no assurance that any of the forecasts mentioned will occur. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Economic and market conditions are subject to change. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow”, is an index representing 30 stocks of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. It is not possible to directly invest in an index.

Thoughts On The Market

Putting Market Activity Into Perspective

Larry Adam, CFA, CIMA®, CFP®, Chief Investment Officer

September 8, 2020

With the ‘unofficial’ end of summer marked by the Labor Day weekend, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have disappointingly fallen 7% and 10%, respectively, over the last three days. Throughout this recent pullback, it has been the sectors with the strongest year-to-date returns that have led the decline. Pullbacks within the equity market are always unsettling, so below are ten points to put the recent decline into perspective and, hopefully, reduce investors’ elevated levels of anxiety.

1. First Three Consecutive Daily Declines in Three Months It is unusual for the equity market to move up in an uninterrupted, straight line. In fact, this recent three-day pullback marked the first three consecutive day decline since June 11 and only the second since March 10. Over the last ten years, it is common to see the equity market exhibit short bouts of volatility like this. In fact, on average, the S&P 500 typically has ~10 individual periods of three consecutive days of declines over a six-month time period (that is almost twice a month). Volatility is part of the fabric of the market.

2. Back to Levels of One Month Ago Despite the S&P 500’s 7% decline over the past three days, it sits at the levels we saw just one month ago! Additionally, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are up 3% and 21%, respectively, year-to-date. Both were at record highs just one week ago.

3. Still the Second Strongest Bull Market at this Juncture Even with the recent weakness, the S&P 500 remains up ~50% off of the lows on March 23. This marks the second strongest start to a bull market at this juncture

4. Best Summer Since 2009 Even with the recent pullback, the S&P 500 posted the best summer return (up 16% from Memorial Day to Labor Day) since 2009 and the second best over the last 50 years. This reflects how strong the recent momentum in the market has been despite continued COVID and political uncertainties.

5. September Is the Weakest Month On an historical basis, September (particularly during an election year) has been the weakest month of the year, on average. While volatility tends to increase during September and October, the market pullbacks, on average, tend to be relatively contained and offset by a rally in November and December.

6. Pullbacks Are Normal Not only have we rallied strongly and very quickly, it is not uncommon to see pullbacks in a given year. In fact, over the last 30 years, the market typically experiences approximately four 5% or more pullbacks a year, on average. Year-to-date, this is the third.

7. Improving Economy Evidenced by both the improving labor market report (1.4 million jobs added and unemployment rate falling to 8.4%), and a strong ISM reading (the new orders subcomponent rose to the highest level since 2004) last week, the US economy continues to recover from the COVID-driven weakness. We forecast 3Q US GDP to rebound and grow ~30% and improving economic activity should remain supportive for the US equity market.

8. Continue to Believe in a Phase 4 Package As both political parties continue to jockey around a Phase 4 stimulus package, our Washington Policy Analyst, Ed Mills, believes that there will be an agreement. Further fiscal stimulus (particularly targeting the consumer) should be supportive of both consumer spending and the equity market.

9. Improving Earnings While earnings expectations had been slashed following the COVID-driven crisis, earnings throughout the second quarter came in significantly better than expectations. Going forward, we expect earnings to continue to improve as fullyear 2020 and 2021 Earnings Per Share (EPS) expectations continue to move higher. Our S&P 500 2021 earnings forecast is ~$160, with room for upside.

10. US Equities Remain Technically Sound Despite the recent pullback, US equities remain above both their 50-day (3,305) and 200-day (3,094) moving averages. Technicians will look for these to remain levels of support. Staying above these moving averages will continue to portray a technically sound equity market. From a sentiment perspective, there were several technical indicators that suggested the equity market was ‘overbought’ and in need of a consolidation period. For example, given the rally before the recent pullback, put/call ratios moved to multiyear lows (showing investors becoming complacent) and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose to the highest level in 2.5 years and moved into the 99th percentile over the last 30 years.

Bottom Line: Given how far and fast the equity market had rallied, it is not surprising to experience a period of consolidation and digestion. Given that valuations on both a trailing and forward basis remain near multi-year highs, the market was priced to perfection and susceptible to disappointments. Near term, equities are likely to remain volatile with the potential for further weakness due to the uncertain timing for a potential COVID vaccine, fiscal relief deliberations, the upcoming presidential election and burgeoning tensions with China. However, the trajectory for US equities is higher over the next 12 months (12-month target 3,600) as a result of improving global economic activity, recovering earnings and still supportive fiscal and monetary policy. As a result, we believe that long-term investors should continue to use periods of weakness as buying opportunities to add to our favorite sectors (Information Technology, Communication Services, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary).

To view whole article click the link below:

https://www.raymondjames.com/-/media/rj/dotcom/files/advisor%20opportunities/totm-putting-market-activity-into-perspective

The Housing Revival

Monday Morning Outlook

Brian S. Wesbury - Chief Economist

Robert Stein, CFA - Dep. Chief Economist

August 24th, 2020

The US economy got crushed in the second quarter, with the worst decline in real GDP for any quarter since the Great Depression. However, the long road to recovery has started and, for now, we’re penciling in real GDP growth at a 20% annual rate for the third quarter. Of all the parts of the US economy that have weathered the COVID-19 storm, none has been as resilient as the housing market.

Homebuilders started homes at a nearly 1.6 million annual rate in December, January, and February, before the Coronavirus and government-mandated shutdowns wreaked havoc. Those were the best three months since 2006 and showed that residential construction had finally fully recovered from the housing implosion that was a center point of the last recession.

Then, during the shutdowns, homebuilding plummeted: housing starts bottomed at a 934,000 annual pace in April, before gaining in May, June and July, hitting an almost 1.5 million pace last month.

We have been saying for the past several years that the fundamentals of the housing market suggest an underlying norm of 1.5 million housing starts per year. This is based on a combination of population growth (more people mean more housing) and scrappage (homes don’t last forever, either because of voluntary knockdowns, fires, floods, hurricanes. tornadoes,…etc.).

However, in the ten years ending in February (March 2010 through February 2020) builders had only started 1.011 million units per year. Part of this made sense: home builders started too many homes during the housing bubble and the only way to work off that excess inventory was to build fewer homes than normal. But, in our view, the inventory correction went too far. In the 20 years through February (March 2000 through February 2020), housing starts only averaged 1.265 million. Too low.

All of this suggests to us that home builders still need to make up for lost time, until the long-term average is closer to 1.5 million per year, which could mean reaching, and then averaging, a pace of something like 1.8 million starts for the next several years.

But it’s not only home building that’s recovered so quickly; home sales have revived, as well. Existing homes were sold at a 5.76 million annual place in February, the fastest pace since the housing bubble burst. Then sales plummeted in March, April, and May, bottoming at an annualized pace of 3.91 million, the slowest since 2010. Since May, however, sales have soared, hitting a 5.86 million annualized pace in July, even beating where we were in February.

Part of the recent gain was likely pent-up home purchases: people who wanted to buy earlier in the year but got temporarily thrown off track by the Coronavirus, massive economic contraction, as well as general uncertainty. But including the drop and the rebound, the average pace of sales in the last five months (March through July) is still slow, suggesting some further gains ahead. Ditto for new home sales, although neither existing nor new home sales will grow every month.

In terms of prices, we expect national average home prices to continue to grow, but with a wide dispersion. Dense cities hit hard by COVID-19, or which have seen social unrest (or both!), especially with the newfound ability to work remotely, are going to be relative losers; other metro areas are going to experience faster gains.

Yes, a Biden win in November could end up expanding the state and local tax deduction, helping some beleaguered cities. But that election outcome is not assured. The enlarged standard deduction would still mean fewer people itemize, and the Biden campaign wants to limit the “value” of itemized deductions to 28% (instead of a proposed top tax rate of 39.6%). Bottom line: housing is going to be a significant tailwind for the US economy overall, but not everywhere.

Date/Time (CST) U.S. Economic Data Consensus First Trust Actual Previous

8-25 / 9:00 am New Home Sales – Jul 0.785 Mil 0.772 Mil 0.776 Mil

8-26 / 7:30 am Durable Goods – Jul +4.5% +5.0% +7.6%

7:30 am Durable Goods (Ex-Trans) – Jul +1.8% +1.3% +3.6%

8-27 / 7:30 am Initial Claims – Aug 22 1.000 Mil 1.040 Mil 1.106 Mil

7:30 am Q2 GDP Preliminary Report -32.5% -32.4% -32.9%

7:30 am Q2 GDP Chain Price Index -1.8% -1.8% -1.8%

8-28 / 7:30 am Personal Income – Jul -0.4% -0.5% -1.1%

7:30 am Personal Spending – Jul +1.5% +1.5% +5.6%

8:45 am Chicago PMI 52.5 51.2 51.9

9:00 am U. Mich Consumer Sentiment- Aug 72.8 73.0 72.8

The attached information was developed by First Trust, an independent third party. The opinions are of the listed authors at First Trust Advisors L.P, and are independent from and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James.  All investments are subject to risk. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided in the attached article will prove to be correct. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forward looking data is subject to change at any time and there is no assurance that projections will be realized. Any information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.

A Healing Economy

Monday Morning Outlook
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist
Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist
August 10, 2020

It's going to take years for the US economy to fully heal from the economic disaster brought about by COVID-19 and the government-mandated shutdowns which continue to limit economic activity across the country. When we talk about a full recovery, we don't simply mean getting real GDP back where it was in late 2019; a full recovery comes when the unemployment rate gets back below 4.0%, and we don't see that happening until at least late 2023.


Yet last week's key reports on the economy clearly show we're recovering. The ISM Manufacturing and Service indices, autos sales, and the employment report all beat expectations. The Manufacturing index came in at 54.2, while the sub-indices for new orders and production both exceeded 60.0 for the first time since 2018. The ISM Services index hit a robust 58.1 for July, the highest reading so far this year, including back in January and February when the economy was doing quite well. The new orders sub-index for services hit 67.7, the highest on record (dating back to 1997).


Meanwhile, consumers felt healthy enough to keep increasing auto purchases. Cars and light trucks were sold at a 14.5 million annual rate in July, the highest since February, when sales were 16.8 million annualized. To put this in perspective, auto sales bottomed at an 8.7 million annual rate in April, so this is one sector which is very nearly healed.


Of course, the big news for the week came with Friday's employment report, which showed payrolls expanding faster than anticipated while the unemployment rate declined further. Nonfarm payrolls rose 1.763 million, while civilian employment, an alternative measure of jobs that includes small-business start-ups, increased 1.350 million. Combined with jobs gains in May and June, these figures show that we've recovered roughly 40% of the jobs lost in the carnage of March and April.


The best news was that both average hourly earnings and the total number of hours worked rose in July, with earnings up 0.2% and hours up 1.0%. Recently, these two figures have moved in opposite directions. At first, layoffs tilted toward lower paid workers, which meant average earnings for the remaining workforce were rising while total hours worked fell. Then, as hours rebounded and (disproportionately) lower-paid workers were rehired, the pattern reversed. Now they're rising at the same time.


In addition, recent declines in unemployment claims signal that the improvement in the labor market is continuing. Initial jobless claims came in at 1.186 million in the latest week, 249,000 fewer than the prior week and the lowest level since March. Continuing claims for regular benefits fell 844,000 to 16.1 million, the lowest since April.


It's still early – the initial report on real GDP growth in the third quarter won't be released until October 29 – but plugging all these reports, as well as earlier ones, into our models suggests growth at a 15.0% annual rate.


But along with faster growth, we're also going to see higher inflation. Broad measures of the money supply are growing rapidly, while the Federal Reserve remains committed to keeping short-term rates low as far as the eye can see. The Fed doesn't think we'll hit its 2.0% inflation target until at least 2023. We think inflation will get there, and beyond, before the calendar closes on 2021.

Date/Time (CST) U.S. Economic Data Consensus First Trust Actual Previous

8-11 / 7:30 am PPI – Jun +0.3% +0.3% -0.2%

7:30 am “Core” PPI – Jun +0.1% +0.1% -0.3%

8-12 / 7:30 am CPI – Jun +0.3% +0.3% +0.6%

7:30 am “Core” CPI – Jun +0.2% +0.2% +0.2%

8-13 / 7:30 am Initial Claims Aug 8 1.100 Mil 1.170 Mil 1.186 Mil

7:30 am Import Prices – Jul +0.5% +1.0% +1.4%

7:30 am Export Prices – Jul +0.4% +0.6% +1.4%

8-14 / 7:30 am Retail Sales – Jul +1.9% +1.8% +7.5%

7:30 am Retail Sales Ex-Auto – Jul +1.3% +1.6% +7.3%

7:30 am Q2 Non-Farm Productivity +1.5% +1.0% -0.9%

7:30 am Q2 Unit Labor Costs +5.7% +6.2% +5.1%

8:15 am Industrial Production – Jul +3.0% +2.4% +5.4%

8:15 am Capacity Utilization – Jul 70.3% 70.3% 68.6%

9:00 am Business Inventories – Jun -1.1% -1.1% -2.3%

The attached information was developed by First Trust, an independent third party. The opinions are of the listed authors at First Trust Advisors L.P, and are independent from and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James.  All investments are subject to risk. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided in the attached article will prove to be correct. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forward looking data is subject to change at any time and there is no assurance that projections will be realized. Any information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.

The Bottom Fell Out

Monday Morning Outlook

Brian S. Wesbury - Chief Economist

Robert Stein, CFA - Dep. Chief Economist

July 27, 2020

Thursday’s initial report on real GDP growth in the second quarter is going to break records, and not in a good way.

Right now, it looks like the US economy shrank at a 35% annual rate in Q2. To put that in perspective, the worst quarter we’ve ever had since the military wind-down immediately following World War II was -10% in the first quarter of 1958, when, not by coincidence, the US was hit by an Asian flu. This is going to shatter that record by multiples and will likely be the worst since the Great Depression.

However, the US economy has already started recovering and we anticipate a strong report for the third quarter. Compared to the bottom in April, retail sales were up 27.0% in June; industrial production has rebounded 6.9%; housing starts, 27.0%.

Now, imagine retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts, are unchanged in July, August, and September; so, basically we’re flatlined from where we were in June throughout the third quarter. Even in that scenario, average retail sales in Q3 would be up at a 48.5% annual rate versus the Q2 average; industrial production would be up at a 17.2% rate; housing starts at a 66.5% annual rate. As a result, we’re penciling in real GDP growth at a 15% annual rate in Q3, assuming continued reductions in inventories.

This doesn’t mean a full recovery anytime soon. Eventually, the economy will pay a price for recent higher government spending and that price may be an eventual return to the Plow Horse growth of 2009-16. The unemployment rate is unlikely to return below 4.0% until at least 2023.

In the meantime, here’s how we get to our forecast for a 35% decline in real GDP for Q2:

Consumption: Car and light truck sales plunged at a 67.3% annual rate in Q2, while “real” (inflation-adjusted) retail sales outside the auto sector shrank at a 27.7% rate. Spending on services also fell: think restaurants & bars, dry-cleaning, daycare, health care services (outside COVID-19), Uber rides,…etc. The list goes on and on. We estimate that real consumer spending on goods and services, combined, fell at a 31.8% annual rate, subtracting 21.6 points from the real GDP growth rate (-31.8 times the consumption share of GDP, which is 68%, equals -21.6).

Business Investment: Business investment in equipment as well as commercial construction got rocked in Q2. Investment in intellectual property may have continued to rise, but we’re estimating a combined contraction at a 30% annual rate, which would subtract 3.9 points from real GDP growth. (-30 times the 13% business investment share of GDP equals -3.9).

Home Building: Residential construction got beat up like everything else in Q2, although in many places it was considered “essential.” We estimate a contraction at a 32.5% annual rate, which would subtract 1.3 points from the real GDP growth. (32.5 times the 4% residential construction share of GDP equals -1.3).

Government: Growth in national defense spending probably offset a drop in public construction projects in Q2, keeping overall government purchases steady, with zero net effect on real GDP growth in Q2.

Trade: The trade deficit soared in April and May as exports and imports both fell but exports fell even faster. At present, we’re projecting that net exports will subtract an unusually large 3.5 points from real GDP growth in Q2, although data out Wednesday morning in the trade deficit in June may alter this estimate, as well as our estimate for overall real GDP.

Inventories: Looks like inventories plunged at the fastest pace on record in Q2, suggesting a drag on real GDP of 4.7 points.

Add it all up, and we get -35.0% annualized real GDP for the second quarter. The key to remember is that we have already seen the worst of the crisis. The US economy will take years to get back to where it was before COVID-19, but a recovery has already started. Businesses and entrepreneurs have adapted and made the best of an awful situation, including massive government overreach. Better days are headed our way.

Date/Time (CST) U.S. Economic Data Consensus First Trust Actual Previous

7-27 / 7:30 am Durable Goods – Jun +6.8% +7.5% +7.3% +15.7%

7:30 am Durable Goods Ex Trans – Jun +3.6% +4.0% +3.3% +3.7%

7-30 / 7:30 am Initial Claims - Jul 20 1.400 Mil 1.375 Mil 1.416 Mil

7:30 am Q2 GDP Advance Report -35.0% -35.0% -5.0%

7:30 am Q2 GDP Chain Price Index +0.1% -0.5% +1.4%

7-31 / 7:30 am Personal Income – Jun -0.7% -0.8% -4.2%

7:30 am Personal Spending – Jun +5.4% +5.5% +8.2%

8:45 am Chicago PMI 43.9 42.5 36.6

9:00 am U. Mich Consumer Sentiment- Jul 72.8 73.5 73.2

The attached information was developed by First Trust, an independent third party. The opinions are of the listed authors at First Trust Advisors L.P, and are independent from and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James.  All investments are subject to risk. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided in the attached article will prove to be correct. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forward looking data is subject to change at any time and there is no assurance that projections will be realized. Any information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.

There's No Such Thing As A Free Lunch

Monday Morning Outlook

Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist
Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist

7/20/2020

“There is no such thing as a free lunch.” It’s been attributed to many different people, Milton Friedman and Robert Heinlein, among others. Regardless of who said it, we think it’s one of the most basic economic truths.

A lunch has to come from somewhere, and once it is consumed, it’s not available for someone else to consume. ‘Another way to say it, someone needs to produce what we consume. Supply comes before demand. Without supply – without production – we have nothing to bring to “the market” in exchange for something else. In Venezuela, production has plummeted due to socialist government policies, while inflation and hunger run rampant.

And the US is facing problems as well. Recent reports show a huge gap between supply and demand, a gap that can’t go on indefinitely. Retail sales in the US, a measure of demand, fell off a cliff in March and April, bottoming 21.7% below the level in February. Since then, retail sales have rebounded sharply, rising 18.2% in May and 7.5% in June. Amazingly, retail sales are now 1.1% higher than a year ago, during a time where unemployment has climbed from 3.7% to 11.1%.

By contrast, industrial production – one proxy for supply – hasn’t done as well. Industrial production fell a combined 16.6% in March and April and has since risen a more modest 6.9% combined in May and June, leaving it down 10.8% from a year ago.

How can Americans go out and buy more when they’re making less? The answer: borrowing from the future through government deficits. Government transfer payments in April and May, combined, were up 86.7% from a year ago due to COVID spending on “tax relief” checks that have been sent out by the IRS, as well as a surge in unemployment compensation, mostly because of more people collecting benefits, but also because benefits were increased substantially.

As a result, government transfer payments made up 30.6% of all personal income in April and 26.4% in May. Let’s say that again…government made up over 25% of all personal income in May!! From 2015 through February 2020, government transfers averaged roughly 17% of all consumer income. Prior to the Panic of 2008, transfer payments averaged 14%. This year, government transfer payments have been so generous that they’ve more than offset declines in wages & salaries and small business income.

Normally, the gap between the growth in retail spending and industrial production would be a sign that something is systematically wrong with the economy, and higher inflation is not long to follow. The only way people can spend more without producing more is if they’re spending inflationary dollars. That’s not a free lunch; it’s just that the cost of the lunch is paid for by reducing the value of all the money we use. (Sneaky, sneaky.)

The Federal Reserve has all but promised to remain loose for the foreseeable future. We haven’t seen this kind of monetary policy since the 1970s.

Consumer prices rose 0.6% in June, although, given steep price declines in March and April, consumer prices are still up only a modest 0.6% from a year ago. So we don’t have deflation, but for now signs of runaway inflation remain scarce.

One reason is that the personal saving rate has surged. The personal saving rate is the share of our after-tax income that we don’t spend on consumer goods or services. It hit 32.2% in April, the highest level on record - by far - going back to at least 1959. The next highest level was 17.3% in May 1975, and the average rate last year was 7.9%. The saving rate remained at a still elevated 23.2% in May.

The fact that people are not rushing out all at once to spend their transfer-padded incomes has helped keep inflation in check. The gap between consumer spending and production has also come in the form of big reductions in business inventories, a reduction that can’t continue forever (eventually, we’d run out of inventories to reduce).

We aren’t looking for hyper-inflation, but we do think the Fed is likely underestimating future price increases. The Fed expects the PCE deflator to rise 0.8% this year, 1.6% in 2021, and 1.7% in 2022. We’d take the OVER on all three.

Date/Time (CST) U.S. Economic Data Consensus First Trust Actual Previous

7-22 / 9:00 am Existing Home Sales – Jun 4.800 Mil 4.660 Mil 3.910 Mil

7-23 / 7:30 am Initial Claims - Jul 18 1.293 Mil 1.250 Mil 1.300 Mil

7-24 / 9:00 am New Home Sales – Jun 0.700 Mil 0.710 Mil 0.676 Mil

The attached information was developed by First Trust, an independent third party. The opinions are of the listed authors at First Trust Advisors L.P, and are independent from and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James.  All investments are subject to risk. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided in the attached article will prove to be correct. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forward looking data is subject to change at any time and there is no assurance that projections will be realized. Any information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.

Saving and the Shutdown

Monday Morning Outlook

Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist
Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist
Date: 6/22/2020

Turning off the global economic light-switch, and then turning it partially back on, has sent shockwaves through economic data that, while anticipated, have been jaw-dropping in both directions.

    For example, US retail sales plunged a combined 21.8% in March and April, before rising 17.7% in May. Manufacturing production fell 20.0% in March and April, before gaining 3.8% in May. Nonfarm payrolls shrank 22.1 million in March and April, followed by a gain of 2.5 million in May. The savings rate surged to 33% in April, the highest rate ever recorded with current metrics.

    This week we’ll get some fresh numbers on home sales, orders for durable goods, and personal income and spending, and we expect it to be a mixed bag. Existing home sales are counted at closing, so the data for May was very weak, as closings in May reflect contracts signed in the lockdown months of March and April. New home sales in May should be better, because those are counted when contracts are signed, and lockdowns had been relaxed. New orders for durable goods should also look better after a 31.5% drop, combined, in March and April. Businesses investment plans froze during the lockdown and, in some cases, previously-made orders were cancelled. Now, orders should start to revive.

But the oddest report this week is going to come on Friday, when we get personal income and spending data for May. Remember, personal income surged in April, rising 10.5%. Normally, increases in personal income are a good sign, but not this time. Both private-sector wages & salaries and small business income plummeted.

Personal income soared in April because the government handed out checks (transfer payments), mostly in the form of one-time payments to taxpayers, but also through increased unemployment benefits. In other words, the US borrowed from future generations to keep income up for the current generation during the COVID shutdown.

But while transfer payments boosted income, spending fell for two reasons. First, people were locked inside, which restrains spending. And, second, many stores, restaurants, bars, theaters, and all kinds of other businesses, were closed anyway. The result: the savings rate surged to 33%, the highest level on record going back to at least 1959. Before this, the highest saving rate for any month before April was 17.3% in May 1975.

In total, the annual rate of government transfer payments rose by $3 trillion, while the annual rate of spending fell by $1.9 trillion. Factoring in the drop in other forms of income (like wages & salaries and small business income), annualized saving grew by $4.0 trillion in April. This means 75% of the burst in savings came from government transfer payments.

But what happened in April was a fluke that should reverse in May, as the one-time IRS payments dwindle and consumer spending rebounds. What happened was artificial, due to the economic shutdown and government reaction. While some of the rise in savings is pent-up demand, this savings rate is artificial, and reflects borrowing from the future. The shutdown destroyed wealth, and importantly, wealth-creating capacity. The artificially high savings rate should not be taken as a sign that all will be well.

Ultimately what matters is how much private-sector income revives, and how quickly. The early stages of the recovery will look like a "V," but we still anticipate a full recovery is years away: real GDP won’t hit the level of late 2019 until at least the end of 2021; the unemployment rate won’t be back down to 4.0% or below until 2023.

Entrepreneurs and innovators made great strides in the past few decades. Now, they have their work cut out for them digging out of the hole created by the shutdowns. Future growth will depend on how rapidly the government can end the lockdowns, and unwind the extraordinary measures taken over the last few months.

    Consensus forecasts come from Bloomberg. This report was prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflects the current opinion of the authors. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security. ~ ~

Stocks’ Rally Hits Roadblock With Worst Drop Since Mid-March

June 12, 2020  

Stocks’ Rally Hits Roadblock With Worst Drop Since Mid-March  

Dear Clients and Friends:  

The word unprecedented seems to have lost its meaning given the number of times we’ve heard it in recent months. But it’s a good word to help describe the confluence of events that include a global pandemic, an economic slowdown here and abroad, job losses, geopolitical tensions and civil unrest. If your head is spinning, we don’t blame you. What we are experiencing can be unnerving.  

The equity markets and the global economy have been shaken, and this week saw the markets’ best sustained rally since the ’30s dissipate in just a few hours, while gross domestic product continues to decline and COVID cases continued to rise in key areas. At one point, the S&P 500 had made up for this year’s losses – only to post its worst daily decline since March on fears of a second wave of coronavirus cases (several states have seen upticks of late), an additional 1.5 million jobless claims and the potential impact on domestic and global economies, explained Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam. The uncertainty surrounding the availability of a potential vaccine compounded already low investor sentiment.  

“Elevated levels of optimism and great expectations of a strong economic and earnings rebound are being met with a dose of reality,” Adam said. “However, we remain optimistic over the longer term.”  

Senior Portfolio Strategist (Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Joey Madere concurs, saying, “We continue to view the positives, such as an enormous fiscal and monetary response, as outweighing the potential negatives (e.g., the election, U.S./China trade rhetoric, virus resurgence).” As such, investors may want to accumulate favored sectors and stocks as this pullback plays out.  

Progress has been made in curtailing the spread of COVID-19, yet as the majority of states reopen and large gatherings from protests continue, there’s the potential of a second wave of the virus. Although another national stay-at-home order is unlikely, according to Healthcare Policy Analyst Chris Meekins, continued upticks in cases could lead to worsening health outlooks and stronger mitigation measures in affected regions.  

Whether we’ll see an additional round of stimulus out of D.C. remains to be seen, adds Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills. “Back to work” is emerging as the theme of the next congressional fiscal relief package, but the direction of the economy and the trajectory of the virus will weigh significantly on the debate. For now, lawmakers anticipate short-term additional economic support with the launch of the Federal Reserve’s Main Street Lending Program, which could provide hundreds of billions in loans to midsized businesses left out of the previous government aid programs. The larger questions for the next congressional package revolve around aid to significantly affected sectors, extensions of expiring individual support (e.g., eviction rotection, unemployment insurance), additional tweaks to small business lending, and whether more direct payments are necessary.  

Here is a look at some key factors we are monitoring:  

Economy

  • Following its June 9-10 policy meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged and kept its asset purchase plans in place. Officials expect a gradual economic recovery and see no change in interest rates through 2022 – an outlook similar to those of private-sector economists, but disappointing for financial market participants.

  • While the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that the economy entered recession in February, it’s likely that the economy bottomed in April, explains Chief Economist Scott Brown. The job market picked up in May, motor vehicle sales improved, and many of the other monthly economic indicators are expected to show sharp improvement as state economies reopen. However, the May rebound came after very steep declines in March and April. Absent a vaccine or effective treatment against the coronavirus, a full economic recovery will take many quarters.

Equities

  • Volatility has crept back up in recent days. Strength from technology stocks masked some of the internal deterioration this week, as the Nasdaq composite was able to break out to new all-time highs, while the average S&P 500 company traded 7% lower.

  • Pullbacks are to be expected, says Madere, especially following the extremely rare up-move experienced over the past 50+ days. He notes that 2009, 1982 and 1975 periods were the only three instances with 25%-plus gains in a 50-day period since the 1930s – all of which were experienced coming out of recessionary bear markets and were followed by short-term pullbacks within the next month or two. Importantly, they all then experienced above average returns over the ensuing 12 months.

  • This pledge to keep rates low and the caution around economic growth from the chair of the Federal Reserve has been damaging to equity markets, explains Chief Fixed Income Strategist Kevin Giddis. What we have learned this week is that there is a cost to reopening the U.S. economy.

Bottom line

  • The equity market should climb higher over the next 12 months or so, Adam believes. Disappointments could lead to further downside volatility. Patience and a focus on asset allocation remain imperative in his view.

  • Recent volatility can be viewed as a needed (and healthy) consolidation for the market to digest its gains, so the fundamentals can begin to catch up to price. While opportunities exist, they come at various levels of risk for both stocks and bonds. Patience and caution are warranted.  

We share all this with you to lend perspective on what’s happening around the country and the world, in markets here and abroad. Know that we built your financial plan with your long-term goals in mind, and we’ve weathered volatility like this before. Of course, we’re always available to discuss your concerns, assess strategic opportunities and offer perspective when needed. Please do not hesitate to reach out to set aside some time to talk. Thank you for your trust in us.    

Sincerely,    

                                       

Matt Goodrich                                                Larry Goodrich, CFP ®

President, Goodrich & Associates, LLC       Vice President, Goodrich & Associates, LLC

Branch Manager, RJFS                                  Co-Branch Manager, RJFS  

Investing involves risk, and investors may incur a profit or a loss. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of Raymond James and are subject to change. Economic and market conditions are subject to change. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. An investment cannot be made in this index. Sector investments are companies engaged in business related to a specific sector. They are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification.  

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its advisors. 

The Recession is Over

Monday Morning Outlook

The Recession is Over To view this article, Click Here
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist
Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist
Date: 6/8/2020


The recession that started in March is the sharpest downturn since the Great Depression. As it turns out, it was also the shortest.

Friday's employment report should leave little doubt that the US economy has already hit bottom and is starting to recover. Every economist brave enough to make a public forecast thought nonfarm payrolls would drop in May and the unemployment rate would continue to rise. Instead, it was the opposite: nonfarm payrolls rose 2.5 million, and the unemployment rate dropped to 13.3%.

This doesn't mean the US is fully recovered, or even close; a full recovery is going to take at least a few years. But look for more positive numbers from here on out, including next week's reports on retail sales, industrial production, and home building.

Paul Krugman tweeted the possibility of the Trump Administration cooking the books, but that's absurd. Jason Furman, one of President Obama's top economists, pointed out that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has 2,400 career staffers and only one political appointee, with no ability to cook the books. The odds of a conspiracy among these career civil servants to help the Trump Administration are zero.

Some analysts have been saying that the unique nature of the economic downturn has made the unemployment rate unreliable, because, for example, PPP loans have allowed furloughed workers to be paid, even though they aren't working, so technically, some say, they are unemployed. Counting these workers as unemployed would have put the jobless rate at 16.3% in May versus the official report of 13.3%.

However, using the same method in April would have meant that jobless rate would have been reported as 19.5%, not the official estimate of 14.7%, which means the drop in the jobless rate in May would have been 3.2 percentage points (19.5% to 16.3%), not the 1.4 points reported Friday. And it's the change in the unemployment rate that matters for financial markets.

Meanwhile, initial jobless claims fell for the ninth consecutive week, and continuing claims remain below the peak hit in the week ending May 9, both consistent with an economy that is already hit bottom.

Another piece of evidence supporting the case for a recovery is that tax receipts look better. Every day the Treasury Department releases figures on various categories of tax receipts. These receipts vary wildly depending on the day of the week and the time of the month, so we like to compare them to 2015, because that was the last year the number of days in March through December fell on the same days of the week as 2020.

In the past five workdays, the Treasury collected $56.8 billion individual income and payroll taxes withheld from paychecks, up 11.8% from the same days in 2015. A month ago, in early May (specifically, the five workdays through May 7), these receipts were up 7.1% versus 2015. This acceleration signals the economy has turned a corner.

Which brings us to our outlook for equities. A month ago, with the S&P 500 at 2930, we projected that stocks would recover to 3100 by year end. But now we're barely under 3200. We continue to expect more gains, but don't expect it to be a straight line, with the S&P 500 finishing the year around 3350 and the Dow Jones Industrials average at 28,500.

Profits will be down substantially in the second quarter, but should recover strongly in the several quarters thereafter. Meanwhile, the money supply is growing rapidly, and the Federal Reserve is prepared to keep monetary policy loose for the foreseeable future, as should be clear after Wednesday's meeting.

The US has gone through tremendous turmoil so far this year, with a response to COVID-19 that included unprecedentedly widespread government-mandated economic shutdowns, followed by a combination of legitimate protests, riots, and looting. No one knows for sure what the second half will bring, much less 2021 and beyond. But we think that, like in the past, those who have faith in the future will be rewarded. This report was prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflects the current opinion of the authors. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.

Follow Brian Wesbury
Twitter | LinkedIn | YouTube | Blog

Follow First Trust
Twitter | LinkedIn | Blogs  

Sincerely,  

                                         

Matt Goodrich                                                Larry Goodrich, CFP ®

President, Goodrich & Associates, LLC       Vice President, Goodrich & Associates, LLC

Branch Manager, RJFS                                  Co-Branch Manager, RJFS  

The attached information was developed by First Trust, an independent third party. The opinions are of the listed authors at First Trust Advisors L.P, and are independent from and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James.  All investments are subject to risk. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided in the attached article will prove to be correct. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forward looking data is subject to change at any time and there is no assurance that projections will be realized. Any information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow”, is an index representing 30 stocks of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. 

Stocks’ Recovery Continues; NASDAQ Now Positive for the Year

June 2, 2020  

Stocks’ Recovery Continues; NASDAQ Now Positive for the Year  

Dear Clients and Friends:  

Stocks continued to move higher in May, as the S&P 500 rallied for a second consecutive month. Continued stimulus from fiscal and monetary authorities has boosted equities, bolstering expectations for an economic rebound later this year and into early 2021. However, positive equity headlines don’t tell the full story, cautions Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam. While he expects equities to be higher over the next 12 to 24 months, near-term risks include rising geopolitical tensions with China as well as potential setbacks related to COVID-19. It helps that mitigation measures have the number of new cases, hospitalizations and the percentage of positive tests trending in the right direction. 

U.S.-China relations will likely emerge as a leading theme in the presidential race, explains Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills. In May, the U.S. outlined restrictive measures targeting China on technology, capital markets and recent laws imposed on Hong Kong. Escalating confrontation between the U.S. and China may undo any progress made during the 2018-19 trade negotiations, and the relationship threatens to hit new lows in 2020, added Mills.

While there has been some promising data on vaccines and therapeutics in recent weeks, there remains a lot of uncertainty on the virus spread, consumer behavior and pace of the economic recovery, explains Joey Madere, senior portfolio strategist, Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy.

Despite headwinds, equities pushed higher in May. The S&P 500 gained 4.53%, while the Dow Jones rose 4.26% and the Nasdaq delivered 6.75%. The S&P 500 is still down almost 6% on the year, however it has begun to regain key technical levels. Long-term opportunity for an ensuing bull market remains, Adam adds. 

Performance reflects price returns as of market close on May 29, 2020

Performance reflects price returns as of market close on May 29, 2020

Here is a look at some key factors we are watching, both here and abroad:

Economy

  • Recent economic data continues to reflect the record decline we’ve seen so far in 2020, including unprecedented job losses and declines in consumer spending. Aggressive action from the Federal Reserve (the Fed) has helped to ease strains in credit markets, and fiscal support from Congress has provided some cushion against the downturn.

  • The expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet and the increase in government borrowing are not necessarily inflationary. In fact, Chief Economist Scott Brown expects some downward pressure on prices given high unemployment and the excess in global productive capacity.

  • After the pandemic, the U.S. will need to get the federal budget on a more sustainable path, but the current elevated level of borrowing need not have an adverse impact on longer-term growth. The greater risk for the economy is ending support too soon, Brown notes.

  • As social distancing guidelines relax, Brown anticipates a sharp rebound in economic growth into the second half of the year, fueled partly by the buildup of savings during the lockdown. However, without a vaccine or effective treatment for COVID-19, many individuals may be reluctant to eat in restaurants, get on airplanes, or attend concerts or sporting events. A full recovery could take several quarters.

Equities

  • The rally in U.S. growth equities relative to the rest of the world is primarily driven by a handful of companies that have benefited from heavy exposure to technology and the work-from-home environment, with large cap and growth names leading the way. Missing is the broad-based rally in more cyclical names as well as the smaller companies, says Nick Lacy, chief portfolio strategist for Raymond James Asset Management Services.

  • Companies may face challenges returning to pre-pandemic profitability with double digit unemployment. The employment situation is likely to stay negative for a few years as some jobs are not coming back any time soon, notes Lacy.

  • The massive underperformance of value stocks relates mostly to those particular companies’ quality and profitability, both in the U.S. and abroad. 

International

  • During May, equity markets outside the U.S. continued to build on the gains of late March and April, although the strengths of these gains typically were lower than those seen in the mainstream American markets, reflecting lower technology sector weightings, according to European Strategist Chris Bailey.

  • Across Europe, both COVID-19 new cases and death rates moderated, allowing for tentative loosening of lockdown rules. Economic data – including corporate earnings results – remained exceptionally weak; however, both consumer and business survey data started to improve. Regional government stimulus efforts included an extension of the U.K.’s wage support scheme until the end of October and a Franco-German plan to bolster the eurozone’s recovery. 

  • Interestingly, the European Union plans to put significant funding behind its “green recovery,” making it more than just a buzzword. The EU proposed its largest-ever budget, including investments for the European Green Deal, the largest decarbonization initiative in world history, notes Pavel Molchanov, energy research analyst. The EU plan to sustain its post-crisis recovery focuses strongly on green initiatives, such as low-carbon electricity generation, including support for countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic, which have been heavily dependent on coal.

  • China and some other parts of East Asia continued their more advanced economic recovery, avoiding any notable COVID-19 second wave so far.

Fixed income

  • Overall, May was a very positive month for credit, for balance sheets and for issuance, with one notable exception – the drop within municipal spreads. The big drop reflects very low Treasury rates coupled with investor appetite for high-quality yield, explains Doug Drabik, managing director for fixed income research.

  • However, we also saw significant spread compression as well as a growing new issue calendar for corporate and municipal bonds, notes Chief Fixed Income Strategist Kevin Giddis.

  • These conditions have allowed state and local governments to tap the capital markets at much lower yields. Furthermore, there’s an expectation that a second round of COVID-19 relief could provide additional money to aid state and local governments with revenue shortfalls and budget deficits. If that happens, we could see municipal yields fall even further.

  • The Treasury offered its first 20-year bond since 1986, and it was a hit. The Treasury has said that it will need to raise $3 trillion in the second quarter of 2020, and the reopening of the 20-year bond helps to let the Treasury finance well out on the yield curve at just over a 1% rate.

Bottom line  

  • Savvy investors can consider using market pullbacks to add exposure to favored sectors (e.g., info tech, communication services, health care).Be sure to set aside emotion before thoughtfully adding to your portfolio. While opportunities exist, they come at various levels of risk for both stocks and bonds.

  • Be patient and steadfast. Please know that [I am/we are] thinking of you and your family and wishing you all good health.

As always, feel free to reach out with any questions you may have – about the markets, your financial plan or anything else that we may be able to help with. Thank you for your trust in us.   


Sincerely,

                                       

Matt Goodrich                                                Larry Goodrich, CFP ®

President, Goodrich & Associates, LLC       Vice President, Goodrich & Associates, LLC

Branch Manager, RJFS                                  Co-Branch Manager, RJFS 




Investing involves risk, and investors may incur a profit or a loss. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of Raymond James and are subject to change. Economic and market conditions are subject to change. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index of 30 widely held stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ National Stock Market. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) index is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the international stock market. The Russell 2000 is an unmanaged index of small cap securities. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. An investment cannot be made in these indexes. International investing involves additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability. These risks are greater in emerging markets. Bond prices and yields are subject to change based upon market conditions and availability. If bonds are sold prior to maturity, you may receive more or less than your initial investment. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and fixed income prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, fixed income prices fall and when interest rates fall, fixed income prices rise.    

Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its advisors. 

SEC Regulation Best Interest: Important Disclosure Documents

Dear Clients and Friends:  

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently adopted new regulations, including Regulation Best Interest, which we believe aligns well with our longstanding core value of putting clients first.

Effective June 30, 2020, all broker-dealers and investment advisers must provide clients with important disclosures to help with their investment decisions. In the coming months, you will receive a disclosure package from Raymond James that includes two new disclosures: 

  • Form CRS (Client Relationship Summary) – A two- to four-page document that describes accounts and services available as well as fees, charges and potential conflicts of interest associated with certain account types.

  • Important Client Information – An approximately 75-page booklet that provides additional details about the topics addressed in Form CRS, as well as further information regarding available investment products and services.

When you receive the package, we suggest you read the new disclosures. While no action is needed, we wanted to make sure you knew what to expect.

In the future, you may receive the Form CRS again on some occasions based on certain investment activities such as opening another account. The SEC wants to ensure investors are aware of available account choices as they are making decisions. By June, these disclosures will also be available on raymondjames.com/legal-disclosures.

How will I receive the upcoming mailing?

You will receive the disclosure package via traditional mail or electronically based on your document delivery preferences at the end of April. The magnitude of the client mailing required a longer production timeline for printing and mailing.

How can I update my delivery preferences for future mailings?

If you wish to receive future disclosure mailings, statements and other correspondence from Raymond James electronically, we encourage you to consider updating your preferences in raymondjames.com/ClientAccess via Account Services > Client Tools.

If you haven’t yet signed up for Client Access, now is a good time to do so given the limited physical contact during these unprecedented times. This secure, convenient online account access system complements the services we provide, offering instant availability of your financial information wherever you are in addition to the convenience of receiving statements and other communications electronically.  

Please feel free to contact us with any questions.    

Sincerely,    

                                       

Matt Goodrich                                                Larry Goodrich, CFP ®

President, Goodrich & Associates, LLC       Vice President, Goodrich & Associates, LLC

Branch Manager, RJFS                                  Co-Branch Manager, RJFS    

Investing involves risk, and investors may incur a profit or a loss. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of Raymond James and are subject to change. There is no assurance that any of the forecasts mentioned will occur. Economic and market conditions are subject to change. Past performance may not be indicative of future results.  The performance noted does not include fees or charges, which would reduce an investor's returns. Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its advisors.  

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. © 2020 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc.  

Raymond James Financial Services does not accept orders and/or instructions regarding your account by email, voice mail, fax or any alternate method. Transactional details do not supersede normal trade confirmations or statements. Email sent through the internet is not secure or confidential. Raymond James Financial Services reserves the right to monitor all email. Any information provided in this email has been prepared from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Raymond James Financial Services and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Any information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Raymond James Financial Services and its employees may own options, rights or warrants to purchase any of the securities mentioned in this email. This email is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you received this message in error, please contact the sender immediately and delete the material from your computer.