Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist

"Tavis Smiley once opined, “I still think in this country, and this might surprise you, the one thing that George Bush said as president that I do agree with, I love that phrase, 'the soft bigotry of low expectations’.” And somewhat “low expectations” were built into yesterday’s ADP employment report, but “surprise,” said report inked more than 100,000 jobs above the estimate (298,000 vs. 187,000e). Moreover, January’s ADP jobs figure was revised up by 15k to 261k. Andrew and I have been telling accounts for weeks that the real economy is stronger than many of the government’s figures suggest, but nonetheless GDP estimates are coming down for 1Q17. Despite that, yesterday’s ADP report almost ensures the Fed will raise interest rates even though the upcoming retail sales report is likely to be soft due to delayed tax refunds. That retail sales report is scheduled for March 15, which just happens to be when the “debt ceiling” shows up"

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