Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist

Robert Stein, CFA – Dep. Chief Economist

Strider Elass – Senior Economist

Talk about destroying a narrative. On Friday, the Labor Department reported 312,000 new jobs in December, with an additional 58,000 from upward revisions to prior months. Recession talk got crushed. The Pouting Pundits of Pessimism claim jobs are a lagging indicator, but the pace of payroll growth starts declining well before a recession starts. In the twelve months ending in June 1989 nonfarm payrolls increased a robust 225,000 per month. In the next twelve months payrolls rose a softer 153,000 per month and then a recession officially started in July 1990. A similar pattern happened before the next two recessions, as well. In the twelve months ending in February 2000, payrolls rose 250,000 per month before decelerating to 137,000 per month in the next twelve months. A recession started in March 2001.

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This information was developed by First Trust, an independent third party. The opinions of Brian S. Wesbury, Robert Stein and Strider Elass are independent from and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Forward looking data is subject to change at any time and there is no assurance that projections will be realized. All investments are subject to risk. There is no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided in the attached article will prove to be correct. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results .