"The Big Chill Stall"

Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com June 12, 2018 Investment Strategy

It was last week when we wrote that the equity markets were likely to “stall” into the first part of this week due to the short-term lack of internal energy.  So it was written and so it has happened, as stocks have “stalled” since last Thursday.  However, the “stall” should end shortly, leading to new all-time highs in the weeks ahead.  Quite frankly, we did not think there would be anyone more bullish than Leon Tuey and me, but I was wrong, for one Geneva-based portfolio manager emailed us this yesterday, from a strategist at Zacks:

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An Open Letter to Arthur Brooks

5/31/2018

Arthur, I heard you’re retiring from AEI after a spectacular run.  Congratulations and best wishes in your future endeavors.  However, in reading an “exit interview” with you, by Tim Alberta of Politico, I stumbled across what I believe to be a very important and dangerous blind spot in your thinking.


With some trepidation, because the interview with Mr. Alberta was relatively short, I would like to summarize your arguments.  The title of the piece was “Americans are Being Held Hostage and Terrorized by the Fringes.”


• You call competition a “moral good” and bemoan a “culture that’s not trying to win [political] competition vigorously and civilly and respectfully, but rather trying to shut down competition…”.  I happen to agree with you on this.  Discourse has become uncivil. 


• You call this “stupid.”  I agree, again, and you add, “It leads to a flaccid set of political parties…you don’t solve problems…you simply build up power structures.  So all politics becomes a rent-seeking mechanism: my tribe, your tribe.” 


• You blame this on the financial crisis of 2008 and cite Reinhart and Rogoff’s book, This Time Is Different, and three German economists who, in early 2017, published a piece in The European Economic Review.  Reinhart and Rogoff argue that economic recoveries in the decade after financial crises are slow.  The German economists argue that these slow or lumpy recoveries have knock-on political effects. 


• You say, “…in the decade after a financial crisis, the knock-on effect over 10 years is not low growth, it’s uneven growth.  The big thing that happens for 10 years is that you have asymmetric economic growth where 80 percent of the income distribution gets none of the rewards of the growth after the recession.”    This creates populism – where people blame “immigrants,” “trading partners,” or “bankers.”   


• You then blame the rise of Trump, on an “unwillingness or inability of mainstream Republicanism to deal with a lot of misery that was going on.  To talk openly about the despair…there’s been a 323 percent increase in drug overdose deaths for men my age…” 


• You say Congress isn’t detached, but, “they don’t know what to do, so they didn’t do anything.”  You then say, “nobody has ever figured out this first decade problem.  Ever… Politicians say, ‘We can solve this; vote for me and I’ll solve it.’  [But] They can’t solve it…they get blamed.” “Nobody knows what to do except wait it out.”  You claim even Milton Friedman in the White House couldn’t have made a V-shaped recovery. 


• You complain of a deficit of happiness, “When people feel like ‘Sh*t, I can’t get ahead,’ that’s when people feel a lot less happy.” “The best single way to get rid of all this unpleasantness right now is economic growth that’s evenly spread throughout the population.”


That’s a pretty straight forward argument.  If you believe financial crises cause lumpy and uneven distribution of growth, if you think Reinhart and Rogoff understand how economies respond to financial crises more fully than Milton Friedman, no wonder you despair.  But this is where you make your fundamental mistake – buying into the Conventional Wisdom narrative about the Panic of 2008.


Like Paul Gigot, Editor of The Wall Street Journal, and Speaker Paul Ryan, I think you have a fatally flawed understanding of the financial crisis of 2008 – what actually caused it, why TARP was such a huge mistake, and how big government growth after the crisis is the real cause of slow growth, despair and political turmoil.  I know you did not specifically mention TARP, but by citing Reinhart and Rogoff you seem to agree that capitalism itself is flawed and government must fix it.


I vigorously disagree with this logic.  I agree with your co-worker at AEI, Peter Wallison, whose book, Hidden In Plain Sight, proves that the government itself created the subprime crisis.  I also believe that the government’s reaction to the crisis, specifically a $3.5 trillion program of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve and a $700 billion taxpayer funded bailout, not only did not work, but undermined America’s faith in free markets and capitalism.


President Bush said after passing TARP, “I’ve abandoned free market principles to save the free market system.”  This statement obviously makes no sense.  If you believe in free markets, just like if you believe in the Ten Commandments, violating them in order to save them is nonsense.  You either believe in free markets, or you don’t; you either believe in the Ten Commandments, or you don’t.  This is not me becoming an “armchair general” after the war, with perfect 20/20 hindsight.  A crisis is when a belief system is tested.  The Republican leadership in 2008 failed that test.


Compare this to the 1980s.  The financial crisis of the early 1980s was bigger, in dollar terms, than the financial crisis of 2008.  In 1980, the entire Saving & Loan Industry had negative net capital.  On a mark-to-market basis, almost every money center bank was bankrupt due the default of Latin and South American debt.  Oil prices collapsed, taking Penn Square, Continental, and other banks down.  Over-leveraged, agricultural banks failed as farmland and crop prices plummeted.  Yet, the U.S. experienced robust economic growth in the 1980s.  There was no decade of lumpy growth.


The reason is simple, Ronald Reagan cut tax rates and regulation, while holding back non-defense government spending.  The Fed tightened monetary policy.  In other words, the U.S. followed the prescriptions of Milton Friedman and we did get a V-shaped recovery.  Yet, Reinhart and Rogoff ignore the 1980s financial crisis, and Kenneth Rogoff said they did so because economic growth didn’t suffer in the 1980s.  He ignored that financial crisis because it provided evidence counter to his theory.  Not very intellectually honest if you ask me.


Slow growth in the past decade is because government ignored the Reagan-Friedman-Hayek lessons – in fact they did the exact opposite.  During the Panic of 2008, government did TARP, QE, tax hikes, massive new regulation, more spending and new entitlement programs.  That’s why the economy is hurting and there is despair in the land.


I believe TARP was the greatest violation of Republican economic principles since Herbert Hoover put tax hikes, SmootHawley tariffs and new spending and regulation in place during the 1930s.  Those policies did nothing but deepen the Great Depression.  In 2008 and early 2009, the S&P 500 fell an additional 40% after TARP was passed.  TARP did not work.  In addition, it was a direct bail out of banks, not mortgage holders.  With Republicans in charge (Bush, Paulson, Bernanke), the GOP violated free market principles and bailed out the rich bankers on Wall Street.


In other words, even the GOP didn’t have faith in capitalism.  By passing TARP they professed faith in government.  Once faith in capitalism is undermined, especially by Republicans who have been the historical defenders of capitalism and free markets, it creates the very thing you complain about.  If Republican leaders lose faith in free markets, no wonder the public does, too.  There is no more competition of ideas.  Both sides believe in government.


Then people work overtime to build up “power structures,” and “politics becomes a rent-seeking mechanism.”  When you compete on these grounds, it becomes a battle of “fringe politics.”  If one union in Greece gets a 31-hour workweek, all unions want one.  If banks get bailed out, why not homeowners, or students with loans?  If we can’t trust banks, how can we trust insurance companies, so why not socialize healthcare?  The commanding heights of power moves from markets to government – no wonder the DC area is booming, while despair spreads in the hinterlands.


Not only did Republicans sell out free markets, they paved the way for massive government growth.  I understand the difficulties in comparing the two, but isn’t opioid addiction (which you use as evidence of economic despair) similar to the excessive drinking of vodka in Russia?  Despair is caused by big government, which undermines the vibrancy of free markets and destroys the more even distribution of economic opportunity that you yearn for.


The way to fix the U.S. economy, the best way to create “evenly spread” economic growth and end despair is for government to get out of the way.  It takes faith in markets and people, not government. 


There are always problems, but when central authorities try to fix those problems, they often make them worse.  You are enough of a historian to understand that.  Allowing Reinhart and Rogoff to lead you this far down the wrong path creates despair in my heart.


I’d be happy to sit down with you and discuss these issues in greater detail.  If you don’t have time, or an inclination to do that, please read my 2009 book (which I wrote at the depths of the crisis), It’s Not as Bad as You Think.

630.517.7756  •  http://www.ftportfolios.comThis report was prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflects the current opinion of the authors.  It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable.  Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice.  This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.

 

"A Licking?!"

Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com May 31, 2018 Investment Strategy

In my misbegotten youth (1950s) there was a Timex wristwatch commercial featuring pitchman John Cameron Swayze, which went, “It takes a licking and keeps on ticking!” According to Pop History Dig: 

The Timex “torture test” advertising was also used in TV ads, a series made popular by celebrity newscaster John Cameron Swayze who hosted the spots.  A number of these ads also featured sports celebrities who doled out the tough treatment to the watches and/or supplied an endorsing statement.  Swayze also hosted non-celebrity Timex ads in which the watch would be subject to other trials — whether placed in a washing machine or attached to the bow of a speed boat (Timex).

Since the February 9, 2018’s “undercut low” the same can be said of the stock market, “It takes a licking and keeps on ticking.”  For sure, we identified that 2/9/18 “undercut low” and recommended recommitting some of the cash raise in January in anticipation of a February Flop.  Ever since then most of the oneday “wonder declines” have been followed by decent rallies; this week was no exception as Tuesday’s Tumble was followed by Wednesday’s Win!

The cause proxima for this week’s two-day two-step was mainly Italy, with a dose of Spain’s political troubles mixed into the equation.  As Tom Essaye writes in his daily must have “Sevens Report:”

First, for a bit of background, in March, during the last Italian general election, two “anti-establishment” parties, 5-Star Movement and the League, received the highest numbers of votes.  That caused some concern that if the two parties were able to form a functioning government, they might ultimately introduce a Brexit-style referendum to leave the EU.  Over the past few weeks, the League and 5-Star Movement (along with other smaller parties) have come close to reaching an agreement on forming a functioning government, and that raised “Italexit” fears last week.

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Morning Tack: "Breakouts Everywhere"

Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com

May 10, 2018

Investment Strategy

“Breakouts Everywhere” You’ve probably seen the cartoon where a woman comes home and finds her husband in with another woman?  The man looks up and says “No, I’m not cheating!” and follows that up with his favorite Groucho Marx line, “Who are you going to believe?  Me or your own eyes? (Groucho).”  We could say the same thing about investors over the past two weeks, “Who are you going to believe?  Me or your own eyes?” because there are upside breakouts everywhere in the stock charts.  We have been talking/writing about this for a few weeks and our pal Bob Pisani did a particularly good job of showing some breakouts right before our appearance on CNBC.  Shortly thereafter Bob wrote this:

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Thoughts on Trade

Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist

Robert Stein, CFA – Dep. Chief Economist

Strider Elass – Senior Economist

   When the report on international trade came out earlier this month, protectionists were up in arms.  Through February, the US’ merchandise (goods only, not services) trade deficit with the rest of the world was the largest for any two-month period on record.  “Economic nationalists” from both sides of the political aisle, think this situation is unsustainable.

   Meanwhile, some investors ran for the hills when President Trump started announcing tariffs on steel, aluminum, and other goods, thinking this was the reincarnation of the Smoot-Hawley tariffs that were a key ingredient of the Great Depression.

   We think the hyperventilating on both sides needs to stop. In general, nothing is wrong with running a trade deficit.  Many states run large and persistent trade imbalances with other states and, rightly, no one cares.  We, the authors, run persistent trade deficits with Chipotle and Chick-fil-A, and we’re confident these deficits are never going away.

    Running a trade deficit means the US gets to buy more than it produces.  In turn, we have this ability because investors from around the world think the US is a good place to put their savings, leading to a net capital inflow that offsets our trade deficit.  Notably, foreign investors are willing to invest here even when the assets they buy generate a low rate of return.  As a result, this process can continue indefinitely.

   It’s important to recognize that free trade enhances our standard of living even if other countries don’t practice free trade.  Let’s say China invents a cure for cancer and America invents a cure for Alzheimer’s.  If China refuses to give their people access to our cure, are we better off letting our people die of cancer?  Of course not!

Imposing or raising tariffs broadly would not help the US economy.  Nor would imposing tariffs on specific goods, like steel or aluminum.Giving some industries special favors will
only create demand for more special favors from others. It’ll grow the swamp, not drain it.

   All that said, we understand the frustration policymakers have with China, in particular, which has been levering access to its huge market to essentially steal foreign companies’ trade secrets and intellectual property.  It has a long-term track record of not respecting patents or trademarks.

    In theory, letting China into the World Trade Organization was supposed to stop this behavior.  But no company wants to bring a WTO case against China when it thinks China would respond by ending its access to their markets and letting in competitors who are more willing to be exploited.

    In addition – and this is very important – China is unlike any of our other trading partners in that it is a potential major military rival in the future.  There is a national security case to be made - even if one takes a libertarian position on free trade in general - that the US could accept a slightly lower standard of living by limiting trade with China, if the result is a lower standard of living for China as well.

   And China doesn’t have much room to fire back at recent US proposals (none of the tariffs targeted specifically at China have been implemented, by the way).  Last year, China exported $506 billion in goods to the US, while we only sent them $130 billion.

   That gives our policymakers room to raise tariffs on China much more than they can raise them on us.  If so, China would generate fewer earnings to turn into purchases of US Treasury debt.  Yet another reason for fear among bond investors.  However, don’t expect China to outright dump Treasury securities in any large amount.  They own our debt because it helps them back up their currency, not as a favor to the US.

   We’re certainly not advocating a trade war.  But an approach that focuses narrowly on China’s abusive behavior could pay dividends if it moves the world toward freer trade.    

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$15 Account Fee Credit for Going Paperless

 

April 16, 2018

Dear Client & Friends,

When you choose to go paperless and stop receiving your Raymond James statements, trade confirmations and account communications by mail, you’ll be doing more than just reducing clutter and saving trees – you can also save money. Beginning May 2018, you can get a $15 account fee credit when you choose online document delivery for accounts subject to any of the following:

·         Annual Account Maintenance Fee (charged annually in August)

·         Capital Access Fee (waived the first year, then charged annually on the account opening anniversary month)

·         Retirement Account Fee (charged annually on the account opening anniversary month)

How to get the credit

If your account is subject to one of the fees above, it can be eligible for the credit if it meets the following criteria:

·         You maintain online delivery for all account documents.

·         The account contains a minimum of $5,000 in cash or securities on its billing date.

·         At least $600 in deposits have been made in the account in the 12 months before the billing date.

How to elect paperless delivery

To elect paperless delivery of all documents, log in to Investor Access, visit the Account Services tab and select “Online viewing only” as the document delivery option for the account.

·         If you do not have an Investor Access login, visit raymondjames.com/investoraccess and click “Enroll in Investor Access” or contact me for assistance.

·         Note: If your account meets the criteria and you have already elected paperless delivery of your account documents, you will automatically receive this credit provided you maintain eligibility as outlined above.

Additional information

·         You can receive multiple $15 credits (one per account) if you elect paperless delivery on more than one eligible account.

·         Credit(s) will automatically renew and be applied annually if you continue to maintain eligibility.

·         It is important that you regularly check your document delivery email address in Investor Access to ensure it is current, valid and spelled correctly.

·         For your protection, Raymond James will reset your document delivery elections to all paper if you do not log in to Investor Access for more than six months, or if notifications sent to your email address are returned undeliverable more than once within 30 days. If the account is reset to paper delivery, you will not receive the credit.

·         This program does not apply to accounts already receiving fee waivers.

Just imagine – no more paperwork piling up or documents getting lost. Going paperless will mean better organization, greater security and saving money. And if you find that you need something on paper, just print it on demand.

 

 

Thank you, as always, for being a valued client. If you have any questions or would like to discuss this in more detail, please do not hesitate to give me a call.

Sincerely,

                                

Matt Goodrich                                                  Larry Goodrich, CFP

President, Goodrich & Associates, LLC.         Vice President, Goodrich & Associates, Inc.

Branch Manager, RJFS                                      Branch Manager, RJFS                        

 

Raymond James Financial Services does not accept orders and/or instructions regarding your account by e-mail, voice mail, fax or any alternate method. Transactional details do not supersede normal trade confirmations or statements. E-mail sent through the Internet is not secure or confidential. Raymond James Financial Services reserves the right to monitor all e-mail.

Any information provided in this e-mail has been prepared from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Raymond James Financial Services and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Any information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Raymond James Financial Services and its employees may own option, rights or warrants to purchase any of the securities mentioned in this email. This e-mail is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you received this message in error, please contact the sender immediately and delete the material from your computer.

Ignoring the Invisible Hand

Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist

Robert Stein, CFA – Dep. Chief Economist

Strider Elass – Senior Economist

     One of the most important questions we have about our country’s future is whether prosperity itself will make the American people lose sight of where that prosperity comes from; whether we’ll forget to cultivate the attitudes about freedom, property rights, and hard work that have made not only us great but also all the other places that have followed the same path.

     To be clear, this has nothing directly to do with who is president or which party controls Congress.  It has nothing to do with the tax cut passed late last year, or recent tariffs, or increases in federal spending, or red tape being cut or added.  Instead, it runs much deeper than that and will affect all of these issues over the very long term, multiple generations into the future. 

     The issue comes to mind for personal reasons, as a couple of us travel around the country with our high school juniors looking at colleges, hither and yon.

      We’re not here to shame any particular school, so we’re not going to name any.  But here’s what we notice on our visits:  at some point, the college admissions officers in charge of the meeting will talk about great accomplishments by students or recently-graduated alumni.  Invariably, the accomplishments are volunteer efforts of various sorts that help people in some far off land or, sometimes, here in the US.

      Don’t get us wrong, stories like this deserve to be told.  They’re important and worthy of honor.  But, not once, in all our collective college tours have we ever heard a school bring up someone who, say, grew up in tough circumstances, was maybe the first in their family to go to college, and has since gone on to become a very successful entrepreneur, investor, or key officer at a large company, like a CEO or CFO,…someone who has gone on to create wealth for their own family and others as well. 

     Not once. 

     Which is odd because we know these colleges must have tons of these stories to tell.  You can tell when you’re taking the tour after the admissions sessions when you walk through the campuses and see the dorms, classrooms, and athletic centers many of which are named after alumni who’ve cut enormous checks.

     Maybe stories of business-oriented success are just not on the radar of the kinds of people who run admissions offices.  Or, worse, maybe they think it’s embarrassing or that there should be some sort of shame associated with striving to generate wealth.  

     Either way, they seem out of touch with why so many of their students want to go to college in the first place.  “Making the world a better place” is not just about volunteer work; it’s about personal ambition and desire mixing with the invisible hand to raise the standard of living for everyone.         

     Capitalism isn’t a dirty word and the long-term success of our civilization means making sure our children know it.

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